Performance Update

As of June 2026, Bursera Capital's total ROI is 468.83%* since the fund's inception in 2019, with Bitcoin standing at 473.25% and the average fund reaching 365.92%. Returns are -18.27%*, with the average fund reporting -13.54% and Bitcoin at -19.24%. Our Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) is 28.19%* with Bitcoin at 28.33% and the average fund at 24.59%.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Digital asset markets began the third quarter on firmer footing as improving macroeconomic conditions, resilient institutional demand, and continued regulatory progress helped restore investor confidence following June's volatility. Bitcoin recovered above $63,000, large-cap digital assets posted broad-based gains, and market sentiment improved as inflation expectations moderated and investors reassessed the outlook for U.S. monetary policy.

Beyond the market recovery, the regulatory landscape continued to mature internationally. Ripple became one of the first major blockchain companies to receive full authorization under the European Union's Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework, reinforcing the global trend toward comprehensive digital asset regulation.

Together, these developments reinforce a theme Bursera Capital has highlighted throughout recent newsletters: while short-term price movements remain influenced by macroeconomic conditions, the long-term trajectory of digital assets continues to be driven by institutional adoption, regulatory clarity, and the expansion of financial infrastructure supporting the asset class.

I. Digital Asset Markets Begin the Third Quarter on Stronger Footing

KEY SIGNAL

Digital asset markets opened the third quarter with renewed momentum as improving macroeconomic conditions, resilient institutional buying, and stronger market sentiment helped Bitcoin recover above $63,000 while several large-cap digital assets posted double-digit weekly gains.

What Happened

Following a volatile end to the second quarter, digital asset markets staged a broad recovery during the first week of July. Bitcoin climbed back above $63,000, erasing nearly all of June's losses and recording its strongest weekly performance in several months. The rally extended across the broader market, with Ethereum gaining more than 11% over the week, Solana advancing over 13%, and XRP emerging as one of the strongest-performing large-cap digital assets after climbing nearly 10%.

The recovery was driven by a combination of macroeconomic, institutional, and technical catalysts.

Economic data released throughout the week pointed toward moderating inflationary pressures and a gradually cooling U.S. labor market. Those developments encouraged investors to reassess expectations surrounding Federal Reserve policy, increasing confidence that interest rates may remain stable—or eventually begin declining—if inflation continues to moderate. As expectations for tighter monetary policy eased, investor appetite for risk assets improved across both traditional financial markets and digital assets.

Institutional participation also remained constructive.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs continued attracting net inflows following several weeks of mixed activity, providing a consistent source of demand from traditional investors. Corporate treasury adoption also remained an important long-term theme as additional publicly traded companies continued accumulating Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset. Although these developments generated fewer headlines than earlier this year, they continue to reinforce structural demand that was largely absent during previous market cycles.

Market positioning further amplified the recovery.

Following Bitcoin's decline into quarter-end, derivatives markets had become increasingly skewed toward bearish positioning. As prices recovered, short sellers were forced to unwind positions, triggering a wave of liquidations that accelerated buying pressure across several major cryptocurrencies. Thin trading conditions surrounding the U.S. Independence Day holiday likely magnified these moves, allowing relatively modest buying activity to produce larger price swings.

Why This Matters

The recent recovery highlights an important evolution within digital asset markets.

Historically, cryptocurrency rallies were often driven primarily by retail speculation or isolated industry events. Today, market performance increasingly reflects the same macroeconomic variables that influence traditional financial markets, including inflation expectations, monetary policy, institutional capital flows, and corporate balance sheet allocation.

Equally important, institutional participation continues providing a more durable source of demand. Spot ETFs, corporate treasury strategies, family offices, pension allocators, and long-term asset managers have begun replacing shorter-term speculative capital as increasingly meaningful drivers of market performance.

While volatility remains an inherent characteristic of digital assets, Bitcoin's ability to recover quickly following periods of weakness suggests that institutional investors continue viewing market pullbacks as opportunities for capital deployment rather than reasons to reduce exposure. This transition represents another indication that the digital asset market is gradually maturing alongside broader financial markets.

II. Europe Continues Setting the Pace for Digital Asset Regulation

KEY SIGNAL

Ripple's authorization under the European Union's MiCA framework represents another significant milestone in the global institutionalization of digital assets and highlights Europe's continued leadership in developing comprehensive regulatory standards.

What Happened

Ripple announced that it has received full authorization as a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) under the European Union's MiCA framework following approval from Luxembourg's financial regulator.

Combined with Ripple's existing Electronic Money Institution license, the authorization allows the company to provide regulated digital asset services throughout the European Economic Area under a single regulatory framework. Ripple now holds more than 75 regulatory licenses globally, positioning the company among the most comprehensively regulated digital asset firms operating today.

The approval follows the conclusion of MiCA's transitional implementation period on July 1, after which digital asset companies operating within the European Union were required to either obtain regulatory authorization or discontinue regulated services.

Ripple joins a growing list of firms successfully navigating the new framework. During the week, the European Securities and Markets Authority expanded its registry of authorized crypto-asset service providers to approximately 280 firms, adding institutions including Standard Chartered, FalconX, and Sygnum Europe.

At the same time, regulators also began enforcing the framework against firms that failed to meet the deadline. Several companies have already begun restructuring their European operations, while national regulators—including Belgium's Financial Services and Markets Authority—have started identifying firms operating without the required authorization.

Why This Matters

Europe has now entered the implementation phase of comprehensive digital asset regulation.

Unlike the United States, where lawmakers continue debating market structure legislation, the European Union has largely completed the legislative process and shifted its focus toward enforcement and supervision. This transition provides market participants with greater regulatory certainty while establishing consistent standards governing licensing, custody, compliance, operational resilience, and consumer protection.

For institutional investors, regulatory certainty remains one of the most important prerequisites for long-term capital allocation.

As more jurisdictions establish comprehensive legal frameworks, compliant infrastructure providers are likely to benefit from greater institutional participation, broader market access, and increased confidence among traditional financial institutions. Europe's progress under MiCA may also serve as a blueprint for other jurisdictions seeking to balance innovation with investor protection as digital assets continue integrating into the global financial system.

Closing Perspective

The first week of July illustrated that digital asset markets are increasingly being shaped by structural developments rather than isolated speculative events.

Bitcoin's recovery, continued institutional participation, and Europe's transition into the enforcement phase of MiCA all point toward the same long-term trend: digital assets are becoming progressively integrated into the global financial system through expanding regulatory frameworks, institutional investment, and mature market infrastructure.

While short-term volatility will remain a defining characteristic of the asset class, the foundations supporting the industry continue to strengthen. As macroeconomic conditions stabilize and regulatory clarity expands across major jurisdictions, institutional adoption is likely to remain one of the most important drivers of long-term growth within digital asset markets.

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*Data from June 2026 subject to crystallization.