As of December 2025, Bursera Capital's total ROI is 785.66%* since the fund's inception in 2019, with Bitcoin standing at 751.78% and the average fund reaching 503.76%. Returns are -8.92%*, with the average fund reporting -0.60% and Bitcoin at -2.32%. Our Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 40.48% continues to lead both Bitcoin (39.63%) and the average fund (32.34%).

Market News

Key developments shaping digital asset markets and policy this month:

• 2025 market recap: Digital asset markets advanced toward regulatory legitimacy with landmark U.S. legislation during Crypto Week, while simultaneously navigating tightening global liquidity, major monetary regime shifts, and renewed U.S.–China trade tensions that drove heightened volatility and systemic stress across markets.
• Strategic accumulation reshapes Bitcoin ownership: Corporations, asset managers, and governments continue to absorb Bitcoin into long-term reserves, tightening effective supply and reinforcing Bitcoin’s transition from a speculative asset into a strategic, macro-linked store of value.
• Venture capital entered a disciplined reset: Crypto venture funding held up in dollar terms but became sharply concentrated in later-stage companies and digital asset treasury vehicles, signaling a higher bar for early-stage projects and a fundamentals-first investment environment heading into 2026.
• Corporate Bitcoin treasury strategies expanded globally: Metaplanet’s aggressive accumulation highlighted the spread of balance-sheet-driven Bitcoin strategies beyond the U.S., demonstrating both the growing acceptance of Bitcoin as a treasury asset and the risks introduced by leverage during volatile markets.
• Fund flows revealed selective, global reallocation: Digital asset inflows remained near record levels, but investor demand rotated away from Bitcoin toward Ethereum and a small set of large-cap altcoins, with early signs that geographically diversified flows may matter more than headline totals in 2026.

2025 Recap: Policy Breakthroughs and Macro Shockwaves

Legislative clarity advanced as global trade tensions and monetary shifts reshaped digital asset markets.

Digital asset markets in 2025 were shaped by a rare convergence of policy progress and macroeconomic disruption. While U.S. lawmakers advanced the most comprehensive digital asset legislation to date during July’s Crypto Week, global liquidity conditions deteriorated sharply amid a historic shift in Japanese monetary policy and renewed U.S.–China trade tensions, creating a year defined by both structural progress and episodic instability.

• Crypto Week delivers landmark legislation: During July 2025 Crypto Week, the U.S. House of Representatives passed three major bills—the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act, the Crypto Legal Accountability and Regulatory Transparency (CLARITY) Act, and legislation prohibiting a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC)—marking a decisive step toward a federal digital asset framework.
• Stablecoin regulation formalized: The GENIUS Act passed with bipartisan support and was signed into law by President Donald Trump, establishing 1:1 reserve backing, monthly disclosures, and solvency standards that materially reduced compliance risk for issuers and institutional users.
• Market structure clarity advances: The CLARITY Act defined regulatory boundaries between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, resolving long-standing uncertainty around token classification and enabling deeper institutional engagement.
• Japan’s monetary pivot destabilizes liquidity: The Bank of Japan raised rates to 0.75% by December 2025, accelerating the unwind of the yen carry trade that had funded global risk assets, including crypto, for decades.
• Trade tensions trigger systemic shock: Escalating U.S.–China trade tensions—sparked by China’s rare-earth export restrictions and Trump’s proposed 100% tariffs—contributed to the October crash, during which Bitcoin fell 13% in one hour and a $19 billion liquidation cascade spread across markets.
• Crypto absorbs global stress: The episode underscored crypto’s integration into global markets, functioning as a 24/7 liquidity outlet during traditional market dislocations while exposing vulnerabilities tied to leverage and thin order books.

Institutional Competition for Bitcoin Supply Intensifies

Corporations, asset managers, and governments accelerate accumulation as ownership concentrates.

Bitcoin accumulation is increasingly being driven by long-term institutional strategies rather than short-term speculative demand. Corporate treasuries, financial institutions, and sovereign entities continue to absorb a growing share of circulating supply, reinforcing a tightening market structure in which Bitcoin is treated as a strategic reserve asset intended to be held across cycles rather than actively traded.

• Michael Saylor signals continued accumulation: Through recurring public “Bitcoin tracker” posts referencing the phrase “Green Dots Beget Orange Dots,” Saylor has repeatedly hinted at further Bitcoin purchases by MicroStrategy, reinforcing expectations of ongoing balance sheet expansion.
• Corporate holdings reach historic concentration: MicroStrategy now holds 671,268 Bitcoin, representing approximately 3.2% of total supply, following two recent purchases totaling roughly $1.94 billion, positioning the firm as the largest known corporate holder globally.
• Aggressive long-term acquisition targets outlined: Saylor has stated that MicroStrategy could ultimately acquire between 5% and 7.5% of all Bitcoin in existence, arguing that reaching these thresholds could materially strengthen the network and significantly influence long-term valuation dynamics.
• Institutional endorsement broadens materially: The New York State Pension Fund reportedly purchased $50 million of MicroStrategy equity, while Bank of America is now recommending that wealth management clients consider allocating 1–4% of portfolios to Bitcoin and digital assets.
• Competition among large buyers escalates: Jack Mallers, founder and CEO of Strike, a payment platform, announced plans for Strike to acquire more than $60 billion worth of Bitcoin, explicitly stating an ambition to become the largest holder.
• Government-held supply remains significant: Taiwan confirmed holdings of 210.45 Bitcoin obtained through seizures, while the United States government controls more than 328,000 Bitcoin; collectively, governments worldwide hold approximately 640,000 Bitcoin, or roughly 3% of total supply.

Crypto Venture Capital Enters a Disciplined Reset

Funding concentrates around proven models as investors outline a selective outlook for 2026.

Crypto venture capital funding in 2025 largely aligned with headline expectations in dollar terms but unfolded in a markedly different structure than prior cycles, with capital concentrating into fewer, later-stage companies and early-stage activity slowing sharply. Investors entering 2026 broadly expect this discipline to persist, characterized by higher bars for new investments, sustained focus on fundamentals, and token sales playing a complementary rather than dominant role in capital formation.

• Capital concentrates despite dollar recovery: Total crypto venture funding reached approximately $18.9 billion in 2025, up from 2024, but deal count fell by roughly 60 percent year over year, reflecting fewer, but larger investments into established businesses rather than broad-based startup formation.
• Digital asset treasury companies dominate inflows: Digital asset treasury firms raised an estimated $29 billion during 2025, providing institutional investors with simplified crypto exposure and diverting capital away from traditional venture-backed operating companies.
• Early-stage funding constrained by LP dynamics: Venture firms cited limited available capital as many funds approached the end of prior fund cycles, while limited partner appetite cooled following underperformance versus Bitcoin and other risk assets since the 2021–2022 peak.
• Regulatory clarity drives investor “bunching”: Clearer market structures enabled companies with product-market fit to scale faster, concentrating funding around stablecoins, exchanges, decentralized finance, prediction markets, and institutional-grade infrastructure.
• Selective recovery expected in 2026: Investors anticipate a modest rebound in early-stage activity next year, supported by mergers and acquisitions, initial public offering pipelines, and continued regulatory normalization, though well below prior-cycle highs.
• Token sales remain a secondary mechanism: Venture capital firms broadly view token sales as a supplemental tool for price discovery and distribution, with hybrid models combining venture backing and on-chain fundraising expected to remain the preferred approach.

Corporate Bitcoin Treasury Strategies Expand in Asia

Metaplanet accelerates accumulation amid volatility, reinforcing balance-sheet-driven Bitcoin exposure.

Corporate Bitcoin treasury strategies continued to expand globally in 2025, with Asian firms increasingly adopting balance-sheet accumulation models despite heightened market volatility. During the fourth quarter, Japanese Bitcoin treasury firm Metaplanet significantly increased its holdings, highlighting a growing willingness among corporations to deploy leverage and equity financing in pursuit of long-term Bitcoin exposure.

• Aggressive fourth-quarter accumulation: According to CEO Simon Gerovich, Metaplanet acquired 4,279 Bitcoin during the fourth quarter, deploying approximately $451 million at an average purchase price of $105,412 per Bitcoin.
• Total holdings reach material scale: The company now holds 35,102 Bitcoin, accumulated at a total cost of $3.78 billion, translating to an average cost basis of roughly $107,606 per Bitcoin.
• Purchases funded through leverage and equity: Metaplanet financed its Bitcoin acquisitions through a combination of loans and new share issuances, including use of a previously announced $500 million credit facility.
• Volatility tests treasury strategies: Bitcoin experienced sharp price swings during the quarter, falling from an all-time high near $126,000 in October to below $85,000 weeks later, placing recent purchases at a temporary unrealized discount.
• Treasury stocks face market pressure: The broader sell-off in crypto assets weighed on Bitcoin treasury equities, with Metaplanet’s U.S.-listed shares and Tokyo-listed stock declining materially from earlier 2025 highs.
• Balance-sheet discipline emphasized: Metaplanet stated that its Bitcoin holdings provide substantial collateral coverage relative to outstanding loans, with borrowing limits designed to preserve buffers during periods of extreme volatility and maintain a market net asset value near parity with treasury holdings.

Digital Asset Fund Flows Signal a Shift Beneath the Surface

Investor demand remains resilient in 2025, but capital reallocates away from Bitcoin toward select altcoins and global markets.

Digital asset investment products attracted $47.2 billion in net inflows during 2025, narrowly missing the prior year’s record and underscoring sustained institutional and intermediary demand despite periods of market volatility. While headline flows remained robust, underlying allocation patterns revealed a meaningful shift in investor preferences, with Bitcoin dominance easing in favor of Ethereum and a small group of higher-beta digital assets, alongside early signs of geographic diversification.

• Annual inflows remain near record levels: According to CoinShares, global digital asset investment products absorbed $47.2 billion in 2025, just below the $48.7 billion peak recorded in 2024, reflecting continued structural demand despite episodic outflows.
• Bitcoin inflows decline materially: Bitcoin-related products saw inflows fall 35% year over year to $26.9 billion, signaling a moderation in dominance as investors diversified exposure across the digital asset complex.
• Ethereum and select altcoins gain share: Ethereum led altcoin inflows with $12.7 billion, up 138% year over year, while XRP and Solana recorded outsized gains of 500% ($3.7 billion) and 1,000% ($3.6 billion), respectively.
• Broader altcoin sentiment weakens: Outside of a narrow group of large-cap assets, remaining altcoins experienced a 30% decline in inflows to $318 million, reinforcing a selective, quality-driven allocation environment.
• Regional flow dynamics begin to shift: The United States remained the largest source of inflows at $47.2 billion, though down 12% year over year, while Germany reversed from outflows to $2.5 billion in inflows and Canada rebounded to $1.1 billion.
• Flow sustainability emerges as key metric: Market participants emphasized that durable, geographically diversified inflows—rather than short-term surges—will be critical in establishing a resilient value floor for digital assets heading into 2026.

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*Data from December 2025 subject to crystallization.