Performance Update

As of April 2025, Bursera Capital's total ROI has reached 1182.26%* since the fund's inception in 2019, with Bitcoin standing at 814.72% and the average fund reaching 462.62%. Month-to-date returns of 8.13%* reflect a steady advance from last month, with the average fund reporting 5.37% and Bitcoin recovering (14.87%) as market conditions stabilize. Our Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 55.44%*continues to lead both Bitcoin (45.44%) and the average fund (31.46%).

Market News

Key takeaways from this month's market activity:

• Bitcoin further cements itself as a Store-of-Value asset amid heightened volatility in traditional markets.
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average heads toward its worst April since the Great Depression.
• The latest Bitcoin Improvement Proposal (BIP) argues for a soft or hard fork of the entire network to upgrade cryptography for quantum resistance requirements.
• Mantra (OM), experienced a 90% price correction overnight, validating our prior decision not to invest in the popular asset.
• Paul Atkins was sworn in as the new chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Bitcoin Holds Firm as Traditional Markets Falter

Bitcoin has emerged as a pillar of stability amid the "Trump Tariff Crash," which sent the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to their lowest levels in a year and pushed bond yields to 2007 highs. Despite this turmoil, Bitcoin’s decline was modest, and over April had since stabilized around $85,000, gaining roughly 6%. As of May, it has now since stabilized around $96,000, gaining roughly 15% over the past month.

Market experts note that mainstream acceptance and institutional infrastructure have bolstered Bitcoin’s legitimacy, increasingly positioning it as a hedge during economic stress. If this trend holds, Bitcoin’s evolving role as a store of value could significantly impact portfolio strategies in volatile markets, challenging the dominance of traditional safe havens like U.S. Treasuries.

• Institutional Adoption: The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs has brought significant institutional capital into the market, creating a foundation of "smarter, stickier money" that isn't quick to exit during market turbulence.
• Decoupling From Traditional Markets: Unlike in previous downturns, when Bitcoin suffered greater losses than traditional indices, we are now witnessing what market maker Wintermute calls "a notable shift from its historical behavior in crises."
• Changing Perception: Bitcoin is increasingly being viewed "less like a speculative tech trade and more like a macro asset with real staying power," according to Stan Novi of Fibonacci Market Maker.
• Weakening Dollar Correlation: As the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) trades at 99.72—levels not seen since July 2023—Bitcoin’s traditional correlation with dollar movements appears to be diminishing.

Digital Asset Enthusiast Paul Atkins sworn in as SEC Chairman

Paul Atkins was officially sworn in as the 34th Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on April 22, replacing Gary Gensler and potentially signaling a significant shift in the regulatory landscape for cryptocurrency and digital assets. A Trump nominee who served as an SEC commissioner from 2002 to 2008 and later founded a consulting firm with crypto industry clients, Atkins is widely expected to implement more industry-friendly policies than his predecessor’s "regulation by enforcement" approach.

• Leadership Transition Complete: Atkins was confirmed by the Senate with a 52–44 vote earlier this month and took his oath of office at a White House ceremony, officially ending Gary Gensler’s tenure, which many in the digital asset industry viewed as antagonistic and hostile.
• Policy Shifts Already Underway: Even before Atkins' arrival, interim leadership under Commissioners Mark Uyeda and Hester Peirce had begun reversing Gensler-era policies by forming a crypto task force, dropping enforcement actions against major industry players, and issuing clarifications about which cryptocurrencies fall outside the SEC’s jurisdiction.
• Digital Asset-Friendly Background: Following his first SEC tenure, Atkins founded Patomak Global Partners, a consulting firm whose clients included banks, crypto exchanges, and DeFi platforms, giving him substantial industry experience that could inform his regulatory approach.
• Clear Regulatory Framework a "Top Priority": During his confirmation hearings, Atkins explicitly stated that creating a regulatory framework for digital assets would be a top priority of his chairmanship, suggesting a more constructive approach to the industry.
• Ongoing Challenges Remain:The SEC faces several complications, including an incomplete commission with only four of five members seated, potential conflicts with President Trump’s personal crypto business interests, and dependence on Congress for comprehensive regulatory legislation.
• Potential Impact: Atkins’ leadership could bring greater regulatory clarity, streamlined compliance pathways, the potential approval of more crypto investment products, and a more predictable regulatory environment—changes that could support market stability and growth.

Quantum Resistance Push Gains Traction

The Bitcoin community faces mounting concerns about quantum computing vulnerabilities as two significant developments highlight the growing urgency for cryptographic upgrades. Developer Agustin Cruz has proposed a network-wide migration to quantum-resistant cryptography, while the research group Project Eleven has launched a competition offering 1 BTC to anyone who can break Bitcoin's current security using quantum methods. These developments signal an accelerating timeline for quantum threats that could compromise Bitcoin's underlying Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA) cryptography.

• Hard Fork Proposal: Bitcoin developer Agustin Cruz has introduced the Quantum-Resistant Address Migration Protocol (QRAMP), a draft Bitcoin Improvement Proposal (BIP) outlining a plan to enforce a network-wide migration from legacy wallets to ones secured by post-quantum cryptography.
• Security Vulnerabilities: Bitcoin currently relies on algorithms including SHA-256 for mining and the ECDSA for signatures, with addresses that have exposed their public keys potentially vulnerable "if sufficiently powerful quantum computers emerge."
• Bitcoin Bounty: Project Eleven has launched the Q-Day Prize, offering 1 Bitcoin (BTC) to the first team able to break an elliptic curve cryptographic key using Shor’s algorithm on a quantum computer, highlighting the seriousness of the quantum threat.
• Supply Implications: The QRAMP proposal is controversial, as it could alter Bitcoin’s circulating supply by permanently eliminating coins associated with addresses that fail to migrate before the deadline, effectively creating a "de facto burn" of those bitcoins.
• Timeline Acceleration: While no quantum computer has yet breached Bitcoin’s security, experts warn that such threats could emerge "within years," coinciding with recent advancements like Microsoft’s Majorana 1 quantum processing unit, designed to scale to a million qubits per chip.
• Community Division:Implementation faces significant challenges, as critics express concern about the potential loss of inactive holdings, including Satoshi Nakamoto’s coins. Many show empathy for "extenuating life circumstances that prevent users from accessing their wallets for many years."

Mantra (OM) Experiences a 90% Price Crash, Sparking Major Scrutiny

On April 13, 2025, Mantra’s OM token collapsed 90%, falling from $6.14 to $0.37 and erasing billions in market cap. This crash exposed critical weaknesses in its fundamentals and tokenomics.

At Bursera, our risk management framework identified multiple red flags, including a $9.5 billion FDV against just $13 million in TVL—a stark mismatch indicating unsustainable growth. On-chain analysis also revealed centralized token control, with excessive concentration in team wallets and opaque governance structures that failed our standards for transparency and decentralization. This rigorous approach to risk analysis is a core reason we avoided exposure to Mantra, despite its prior market momentum.

• Suspicious Wallet Activity: On-chain data revealed that, in the days before the crash, millions of OM tokens were sent to centralized exchanges OKX and Binance. One address linked to Binance reportedly transferred over $36 million in OM to OKX in a sequence of moves that some analysts viewed as strategic positioning ahead of the collapse.
• Massive Pre-Crash Transfers:Blockchain analytics platform Lookonchain identified 17 wallets that moved a combined 43.6 million OM tokens—worth approximately $227 million—to exchanges before the crash. At least two wallets were allegedly linked to strategic investor Laser Digital.
• Tokenomics Red Flags: In 2024, Mantra doubled its token supply to 1.77 billion and shifted to an inflationary model with an uncapped supply, diluting original holders. According to Jean Rausis, co-founder of SMARDEX, "Complex vesting favored insiders, while low circulating supply and massive FDV fueled hype and price manipulation."
• Centralization Concerns: The team reportedly held approximately 90% of OM tokens, indicating a high level of centralization. Phil Fogel, co-founder of Cork, noted, "The team also maintained control over governance, which undermined the project's decentralized nature."
• Recovery Attempt: In the aftermath, the Mantra team announced plans to burn 300 million OM tokens from its treasury as part of a "stabilization strategy" to reduce the circulating supply and restore investor confidence. Critics argue that this move is more about damage control than genuine progress.

Demand for Bitcoin Among Chinese Citizens Skyrockets, Signaling Potential Policy Shift by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)

Despite China’s 2021 ban on cryptocurrency trading and mining, emerging signals suggest that Beijing may be reconsidering its stance toward Bitcoin and digital assets. A combination of flourishing underground markets, shifting geopolitical dynamics, and strategic positioning in Hong Kong points to potential policy changes that could significantly impact global crypto markets. For investors monitoring global crypto adoption, China’s evolving approach merits close attention, as any policy reversal would have substantial implications for Bitcoin demand and pricing.

• Thriving Gray Market: Chinese mainland demand for Bitcoin has approximately quadrupled on a quarterly basis since the 2021 ban, with over-the-counter trading networks providing access despite restrictions.
• Hong Kong as a Testing Ground: Hong Kong’s embrace of crypto regulation and spot Bitcoin ETFs may be serving as an experiment for mainland China’s eventual approach to digital assets.
• Political Catalyst: According to HashKey Capital CEO Chao Deng, Donald Trump’s 2024 election victory has coincided with China shifting from a "hostile" stance to a more supportive position on cryptocurrency.
• Regulatory Signals: Chinese financial regulators reportedly show increased interest in Bitcoin research. Red Date Technology CEO Yifan He now estimates "more than a 50% chance in three years" of China lifting restrictions.
• Economic Implications: Given China’s economic size and technological capabilities, a policy reversal could have a dramatic effect on the entire digital asset marketplace.
• Investment Outlook: We will continue to monitor Hong Kong’s regulatory developments as potential early indicators of broader Chinese policy direction, while recognizing that substantial mainland demand already exists through unofficial channels.

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*Data from April 2025 subject to crystallization.